UD San Fernando vs Orihuela

08 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.9 pp

UD San Fernando

Orihuela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.1% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 35.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.2% 3.04 DRAW 27.8% 3.30 AWAY 42.1% 2.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates UD San Fernando clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.1% win probability, compared with 30.2% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

UD San Fernando has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD San Fernando Orihuela

Shots 18.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours UD San Fernando, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD San Fernando Orihuela

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.0

UD San Fernando has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD San Fernando Orihuela

The combined recent performance profile favours UD San Fernando.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

UD San Fernando ↑ +0.04 (+1.3%)

Orihuela ↑ +0.08 (+3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.