UD Santa Marta vs Vimenor

09 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

UD Santa Marta

Vimenor

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.0% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 28.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.9% 2.05 DRAW 27.7% 3.40 AWAY 26.5% 3.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UD Santa Marta

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Santa Marta Vimenor

Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 0.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours UD Santa Marta, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Santa Marta Vimenor

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 0.3 · On target allowed 0.3

Vimenor has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Santa Marta Vimenor

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

UD Santa Marta = (0.0%)

Vimenor ↑ +0.38 (+11.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.