Puebla vs Toluca

16 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Puebla

Toluca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.1% DRAW 20.6% AWAY 62.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 16.9% 5.75 DRAW 21.1% 4.60 AWAY 61.9% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Toluca

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puebla Toluca

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puebla Toluca

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Toluca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puebla Toluca

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Puebla ↑ +0.96 (+21.0%)

Toluca ↓ -0.07 (-4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.