FC Matsucelona vs Niigata UHW II

06 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

FC Matsucelona

Niigata UHW II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.9% DRAW 17.0% AWAY 73.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.9% 7.50 DRAW 18.8% 4.75 AWAY 69.4% 1.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Niigata UHW II relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.1% win probability, compared with 69.4% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Niigata UHW II

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Matsucelona Niigata UHW II

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Matsucelona Niigata UHW II

Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 10.0 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Niigata UHW II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Matsucelona Niigata UHW II

The combined recent performance profile favours Niigata UHW II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Matsucelona = (0.0%)

Niigata UHW II = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.