CA Celeste vs Nexus Miyakonojo

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.3 pp

CA Celeste

Nexus Miyakonojo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.3% DRAW 25.9% AWAY 42.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.9% 2.70 DRAW 26.6% 3.55 AWAY 38.5% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Nexus Miyakonojo clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.8% win probability, compared with 38.5% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Nexus Miyakonojo has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Celeste Nexus Miyakonojo

Shots 4.5 · On target 1.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Nexus Miyakonojo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Celeste Nexus Miyakonojo

Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Nexus Miyakonojo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Celeste Nexus Miyakonojo

The combined recent performance profile favours Nexus Miyakonojo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

CA Celeste ↑ +0.15 (+5.9%)

Nexus Miyakonojo ↑ +0.08 (+3.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.