Tanzania vs Guinea-Bissau

25 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.4 pp

Tanzania

Guinea-Bissau

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 32.1% AWAY 21.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.8% 2.33 DRAW 32.3% 3.02 AWAY 25.9% 3.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Tanzania clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.3% win probability, compared with 41.8% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tanzania has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tanzania Guinea-Bissau

Shots 12.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Tanzania, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tanzania Guinea-Bissau

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Tanzania has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tanzania Guinea-Bissau

The combined recent performance profile favours Tanzania.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tanzania ↑ +0.27 (+13.1%)

Guinea-Bissau ↑ +0.46 (+13.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.