Mali vs Cape Verde Islands

25 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Mali

Cape Verde Islands

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.8% DRAW 32.4% AWAY 23.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.5% 2.18 DRAW 31.9% 2.97 AWAY 24.6% 3.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Cape Verde Islands

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mali Cape Verde Islands

Shots 4.0 · On target 0.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Cape Verde Islands, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mali Cape Verde Islands

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Mali has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mali Cape Verde Islands

The combined recent performance profile favours Cape Verde Islands.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Mali ↑ +0.18 (+9.0%)

Cape Verde Islands ↑ +0.41 (+11.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.