Sudan vs Ethiopia

25 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Sudan

Ethiopia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.0% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 23.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.1% 1.80 DRAW 29.1% 3.10 AWAY 20.8% 4.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sudan

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sudan Ethiopia

Shots 9.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 2.3 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Sudan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sudan Ethiopia

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.3

Ethiopia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sudan Ethiopia

The combined recent performance profile favours Ethiopia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sudan ↑ +0.00 (+0.2%)

Ethiopia ↑ +0.62 (+15.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.