Algeria vs Zambia

25 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Algeria

Zambia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.4% DRAW 14.2% AWAY 5.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.6% 1.22 DRAW 15.5% 6.20 AWAY 6.0% 16.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Algeria has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Algeria Zambia

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 6.5 · On target 1.0

Recent attacking output favours Algeria, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Algeria Zambia

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Algeria has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Algeria Zambia

The combined recent performance profile favours Algeria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Algeria ↑ +0.07 (+6.1%)

Zambia ↑ +1.90 (+13.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.