Gambia vs Somalia

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Gambia

Somalia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.3% DRAW 11.6% AWAY 5.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.7% 1.13 DRAW 11.8% 8.00 AWAY 4.5% 21.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gambia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gambia Somalia

Shots 3.3 · On target 1.0 Shots 2.8 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Gambia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gambia Somalia

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 0.3

Somalia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gambia Somalia

The combined recent performance profile favours Somalia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Gambia ↑ +0.08 (+7.6%)

Somalia ↑ +4.00 (+23.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.