Malawi vs South Sudan

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Malawi

South Sudan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.7% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 15.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.6% 1.65 DRAW 25.9% 3.65 AWAY 16.5% 5.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: South Sudan

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Malawi South Sudan

Shots 3.8 · On target 1.3 Shots 4.3 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Malawi South Sudan

Shots allowed 2.5 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Malawi has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Malawi South Sudan

The combined recent performance profile favours Malawi.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Malawi ↑ +0.20 (+13.4%)

South Sudan ↓ -1.28 (-18.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.