Morocco vs Gabon

25 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Morocco

Gabon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 85.9% DRAW 9.9% AWAY 4.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 85.2% 1.12 DRAW 10.6% 9.00 AWAY 4.2% 23.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gabon

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Morocco Gabon

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Morocco Gabon

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Morocco has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Morocco Gabon

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Morocco ↑ +0.05 (+4.7%)

Gabon ↑ +6.00 (+35.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.