Nigeria vs Madagascar

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Nigeria

Madagascar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 79.1% DRAW 14.6% AWAY 6.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 78.5% 1.21 DRAW 15.2% 6.25 AWAY 6.3% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nigeria

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nigeria Madagascar

Shots 7.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 0.3 · On target 0.0

Recent attacking output favours Nigeria, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nigeria Madagascar

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.5

Madagascar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nigeria Madagascar

The combined recent performance profile favours Nigeria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Nigeria ↑ +0.09 (+8.0%)

Madagascar = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.