Man City vs Sunderland

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Man City

Sunderland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 72.4% DRAW 17.2% AWAY 10.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 71.8% 1.37 DRAW 17.9% 5.50 AWAY 10.4% 9.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Man City

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Man City Sunderland

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Man City Sunderland

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Man City has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Man City Sunderland

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Man City ↑ +0.06 (+4.6%)

Sunderland ↓ -0.52 (-5.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.