Fardu Ferghana vs FK Orol Nukus

07 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Fardu Ferghana

FK Orol Nukus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 32.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% 2.38 DRAW 26.4% 3.40 AWAY 35.9% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Fardu Ferghana clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.9% win probability, compared with 37.8% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Fardu Ferghana has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fardu Ferghana FK Orol Nukus

Shots 12.5 · On target 7.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Fardu Ferghana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fardu Ferghana FK Orol Nukus

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Fardu Ferghana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fardu Ferghana FK Orol Nukus

The combined recent performance profile favours Fardu Ferghana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fardu Ferghana = (0.0%)

FK Orol Nukus = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.