Elche vs Real Madrid

15 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Elche

Real Madrid

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.9% DRAW 12.3% AWAY 80.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.0% 14.00 DRAW 13.1% 7.50 AWAY 79.9% 1.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Madrid

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Elche Real Madrid

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 19.8 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours Real Madrid, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Elche Real Madrid

Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Elche Real Madrid

The combined recent performance profile favours Real Madrid.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Elche ↑ +3.00 (+27.3%)

Real Madrid ↓ -0.10 (-7.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.