Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

15 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Rayo Vallecano

Espanyol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.4% DRAW 28.7% AWAY 29.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% 2.44 DRAW 28.8% 3.40 AWAY 31.1% 3.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rayo Vallecano

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rayo Vallecano Espanyol

Shots 13.3 · On target 6.3 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Rayo Vallecano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rayo Vallecano Espanyol

Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rayo Vallecano Espanyol

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Rayo Vallecano ↑ +0.37 (+17.8%)

Espanyol ↓ -0.73 (-18.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.