Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

24 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Hapoel Hadera

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.4% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 20.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.1% 1.80 DRAW 26.1% 3.52 AWAY 22.7% 4.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hapoel Hadera relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.4% win probability, compared with 51.1% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Hapoel Hadera

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Hadera Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

Shots 8.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Hapoel Hadera, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Hadera Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Hapoel Hadera has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Hadera Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

The combined recent performance profile favours Hapoel Hadera.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hapoel Hadera = (0.0%)

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod ↑ +0.45 (+12.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.