AS Nordia Jerusalem vs MS Jerusalem

18 Sep 2026 · 10:55

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

AS Nordia Jerusalem

MS Jerusalem

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.7% DRAW 21.6% AWAY 62.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.6% 5.33 DRAW 22.8% 4.10 AWAY 59.6% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for MS Jerusalem relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 62.7% win probability, compared with 59.6% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MS Jerusalem has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AS Nordia Jerusalem MS Jerusalem

Shots 2.0 · On target 0.8 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours MS Jerusalem, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AS Nordia Jerusalem MS Jerusalem

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AS Nordia Jerusalem MS Jerusalem

The combined recent performance profile favours MS Jerusalem.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AS Nordia Jerusalem ↓ -0.10 (-1.8%)

MS Jerusalem ↑ +0.04 (+2.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.