Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne

11 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Oakleigh Cannons

South Melbourne

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.8% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 27.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.2% 2.16 DRAW 26.5% 3.60 AWAY 29.3% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Oakleigh Cannons relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.8% win probability, compared with 44.2% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Oakleigh Cannons has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Oakleigh Cannons South Melbourne

Shots 10.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Oakleigh Cannons, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Oakleigh Cannons South Melbourne

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Oakleigh Cannons has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Oakleigh Cannons South Melbourne

The combined recent performance profile favours Oakleigh Cannons.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Oakleigh Cannons ↑ +0.28 (+15.1%)

South Melbourne ↓ -0.15 (-4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.