Juventus (W) vs Benfica (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.1 pp

Juventus (W)

Benfica (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.2% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 22.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% 1.63 DRAW 21.9% 4.43 AWAY 18.5% 5.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Benfica (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.6% win probability, compared with 18.5% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Benfica (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Juventus (W) Benfica (W)

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Juventus (W) Benfica (W)

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.0

Benfica (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Juventus (W) Benfica (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Benfica (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Juventus (W) ↓ -0.19 (-10.4%)

Benfica (W) ↑ +0.50 (+10.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.