Auxerre vs Brest

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.6 pp

Auxerre

Brest

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.8% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 44.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% 3.08 DRAW 27.9% 3.50 AWAY 40.4% 2.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Brest clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.9% win probability, compared with 40.4% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Brest has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Auxerre Brest

Shots 12.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 21.5 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Brest, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Auxerre Brest

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Brest has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Auxerre Brest

The combined recent performance profile favours Brest.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Auxerre ↑ +0.29 (+10.6%)

Brest ↓ -0.19 (-7.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.