Nice vs Lille

20 Sep 2026 · 17:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Nice

Lille

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.7% DRAW 27.7% AWAY 40.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% 3.42 DRAW 27.5% 3.54 AWAY 44.0% 2.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nice relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 31.7% win probability, compared with 28.5% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nice

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nice Lille

Shots 12.0 · On target 2.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nice Lille

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Nice has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nice Lille

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Nice ↓ -0.36 (-9.5%)

Lille ↑ +0.09 (+4.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.