Puebla U21 vs Toluca U21

15 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Puebla U21

Toluca U21

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.5% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 41.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.2% 3.31 DRAW 31.2% 3.20 AWAY 38.6% 2.59

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Toluca U21 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.1% win probability, compared with 38.6% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Toluca U21 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Puebla U21 Toluca U21

Shots 10.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output favours Toluca U21, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Puebla U21 Toluca U21

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Toluca U21 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Puebla U21 Toluca U21

The combined recent performance profile favours Toluca U21.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Puebla U21 ↑ +0.61 (+22.6%)

Toluca U21 ↑ +0.27 (+11.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.