Deportivo Recoleta (W) vs Club Guarani (W)

07 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Deportivo Recoleta (W)

Club Guarani (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 3.7% DRAW 8.0% AWAY 88.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 5.1% 18.50 DRAW 10.0% 9.40 AWAY 84.9% 1.11

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Club Guarani (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 88.3% win probability, compared with 84.9% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club Guarani (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Recoleta (W) Club Guarani (W)

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 16.0 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Club Guarani (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Recoleta (W) Club Guarani (W)

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Club Guarani (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Recoleta (W) Club Guarani (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Guarani (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Deportivo Recoleta (W) ↑ +5.50 (+42.3%)

Club Guarani (W) ↓ -0.03 (-2.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.