Sportivo Luqueno Reserves vs Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

07 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.5% DRAW 21.9% AWAY 46.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% 2.85 DRAW 23.1% 4.10 AWAY 43.8% 2.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sportivo Ameliano Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.6% win probability, compared with 43.8% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves Sportivo Ameliano Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Sportivo Ameliano Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sportivo Luqueno Reserves ↓ -0.29 (-9.1%)

Sportivo Ameliano Reserves ↑ +0.16 (+8.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.