La Serena vs Universidad de Chile

13 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.4 pp

La Serena

Universidad de Chile

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.2% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 55.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.3% 4.16 DRAW 25.3% 3.84 AWAY 51.4% 1.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Universidad de Chile clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.8% win probability, compared with 51.4% implied by the market. The 4.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Universidad de Chile has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

La Serena Universidad de Chile

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 19.3 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Universidad de Chile, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

La Serena Universidad de Chile

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Universidad de Chile has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

La Serena Universidad de Chile

The combined recent performance profile favours Universidad de Chile.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

La Serena ↑ +0.17 (+4.3%)

Universidad de Chile ↑ +0.04 (+2.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.