Aurora vs CSD Municipal

10 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Aurora

CSD Municipal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.9% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 47.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.0% 3.59 DRAW 27.7% 3.50 AWAY 45.3% 2.14

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CSD Municipal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.9% win probability, compared with 45.3% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CSD Municipal has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aurora CSD Municipal

Shots 8.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours CSD Municipal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aurora CSD Municipal

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 0.8

CSD Municipal has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aurora CSD Municipal

The combined recent performance profile favours CSD Municipal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Aurora ↓ -0.19 (-5.0%)

CSD Municipal ↑ +0.13 (+6.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.