PEPO vs HIFK 2

08 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +7.6 pp

PEPO

HIFK 2

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 61.0% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 19.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.5% 1.72 DRAW 21.9% 4.20 AWAY 24.6% 3.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates PEPO substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 61.0% win probability, compared with 53.5% implied by the market. The 7.6 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: PEPO

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

PEPO HIFK 2

Shots 14.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

PEPO HIFK 2

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.5

PEPO has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

PEPO HIFK 2

The combined recent performance profile favours PEPO.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

PEPO ↓ -0.27 (-13.6%)

HIFK 2 ↑ +0.74 (+24.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.