FC Astana (W) vs Tobol Kostanay (W)

08 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

FC Astana (W)

Tobol Kostanay (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 37.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% 2.43 DRAW 22.5% 4.10 AWAY 39.5% 2.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Astana (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.7% win probability, compared with 38.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: FC Astana (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Astana (W) Tobol Kostanay (W)

Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Astana (W) Tobol Kostanay (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 8.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Astana (W) Tobol Kostanay (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

FC Astana (W) ↑ +0.13 (+5.7%)

Tobol Kostanay (W) ↑ +0.04 (+1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.