FC Hebar Pazardzhik vs Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

14 Sep 2026 · 16:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

FC Hebar Pazardzhik

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.2% 1.92 DRAW 25.2% 3.75 AWAY 25.6% 3.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC Hebar Pazardzhik relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.1% win probability, compared with 49.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC Hebar Pazardzhik has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Shots 14.0 · On target 6.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FC Hebar Pazardzhik Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

The combined recent performance profile favours FC Hebar Pazardzhik.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

FC Hebar Pazardzhik ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo ↑ +0.44 (+13.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.