Racing Santander (W) vs Osasuna (W)

08 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.5 pp

Racing Santander (W)

Osasuna (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.0% DRAW 15.7% AWAY 71.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.8% 6.50 DRAW 17.4% 5.50 AWAY 67.8% 1.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Osasuna (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 71.3% win probability, compared with 67.8% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Osasuna (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Racing Santander (W) Osasuna (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 16.0 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Osasuna (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Racing Santander (W) Osasuna (W)

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Osasuna (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Racing Santander (W) Osasuna (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Osasuna (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Racing Santander (W) ↑ +1.00 (+18.2%)

Osasuna (W) ↑ +0.03 (+2.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.