Sassuolo (W) vs Roma (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.2 pp

Sassuolo (W)

Roma (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.4% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 57.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 23.1% 4.02 DRAW 24.5% 3.79 AWAY 52.4% 1.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Roma (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.7% win probability, compared with 52.4% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Roma (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sassuolo (W) Roma (W)

Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sassuolo (W) Roma (W)

Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 8.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Roma (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sassuolo (W) Roma (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Roma (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sassuolo (W) ↓ -1.21 (-23.1%)

Roma (W) ↑ +0.26 (+17.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.