Chernomorets Burgas vs Spartak Pleven

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Chernomorets Burgas

Spartak Pleven

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.7% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 14.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.1% 1.65 DRAW 25.4% 3.84 AWAY 15.5% 6.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Chernomorets Burgas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chernomorets Burgas Spartak Pleven

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chernomorets Burgas Spartak Pleven

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Chernomorets Burgas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chernomorets Burgas Spartak Pleven

The combined recent performance profile favours Chernomorets Burgas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Chernomorets Burgas ↑ +0.17 (+11.5%)

Spartak Pleven ↑ +0.56 (+9.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.