Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa vs Nesebar

15 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa

Nesebar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 28.2% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.9% 1.77 DRAW 27.8% 3.30 AWAY 20.3% 4.53

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nesebar

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Nesebar

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Nesebar

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 1.5

Nesebar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Nesebar

The combined recent performance profile favours Nesebar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa ↓ -0.14 (-7.3%)

Nesebar ↑ +1.03 (+29.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.