Excelsior '31 vs Amsterdamsche FC

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Excelsior '31

Amsterdamsche FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.6% DRAW 16.3% AWAY 9.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.8% 1.24 DRAW 17.1% 5.35 AWAY 9.1% 10.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Amsterdamsche FC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excelsior '31 Amsterdamsche FC

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excelsior '31 Amsterdamsche FC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Excelsior '31 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excelsior '31 Amsterdamsche FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Excelsior '31 ↓ -0.01 (-0.6%)

Amsterdamsche FC ↑ +2.77 (+38.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.