Sportlust '46 vs Excelsior Maassluis

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Sportlust '46

Excelsior Maassluis

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.3% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 44.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.8% 3.13 DRAW 24.7% 3.90 AWAY 44.5% 2.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Excelsior Maassluis

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportlust '46 Excelsior Maassluis

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 19.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Excelsior Maassluis, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportlust '46 Excelsior Maassluis

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Sportlust '46 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportlust '46 Excelsior Maassluis

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sportlust '46 ↑ +0.71 (+29.3%)

Excelsior Maassluis ↓ -0.18 (-7.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.