Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu

18 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Changchun Xidu

Guangdong Mingtu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 33.6% AWAY 32.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% 2.63 DRAW 32.8% 2.85 AWAY 31.6% 2.96

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Guangdong Mingtu has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Changchun Xidu Guangdong Mingtu

Shots 6.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Changchun Xidu Guangdong Mingtu

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 1.5

Guangdong Mingtu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Changchun Xidu Guangdong Mingtu

The combined recent performance profile favours Guangdong Mingtu.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Changchun Xidu ↑ +0.06 (+2.3%)

Guangdong Mingtu ↑ +0.39 (+15.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.