Hubei Istar vs Changchun Xidu

12 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.2 pp

Hubei Istar

Changchun Xidu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% DRAW 31.7% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.6% 2.28 DRAW 31.2% 3.04 AWAY 27.1% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Changchun Xidu

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hubei Istar Changchun Xidu

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 4.8 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hubei Istar Changchun Xidu

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Changchun Xidu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hubei Istar Changchun Xidu

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Hubei Istar ↑ +0.24 (+11.8%)

Changchun Xidu ↑ +0.08 (+2.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.