Jiangxi Lushan vs Shandong Taishan Reserves

18 Sep 2026 · 13:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Jiangxi Lushan

Shandong Taishan Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 39.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.1% 3.09 DRAW 31.0% 3.00 AWAY 38.8% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Shandong Taishan Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jiangxi Lushan Shandong Taishan Reserves

Shots 6.5 · On target 1.5 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Shandong Taishan Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jiangxi Lushan Shandong Taishan Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Shandong Taishan Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jiangxi Lushan Shandong Taishan Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Shandong Taishan Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Jiangxi Lushan ↑ +0.59 (+23.6%)

Shandong Taishan Reserves ↓ -0.23 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.