Shenzhen 2028 vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

13 Sep 2026 · 13:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Shenzhen 2028

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.5% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 24.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.19 DRAW 29.5% 3.20 AWAY 27.4% 3.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Shenzhen 2028 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.5% win probability, compared with 43.1% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Shenzhen 2028

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Shenzhen 2028 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Shenzhen 2028, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Shenzhen 2028 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Shenzhen 2028 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

The combined recent performance profile favours Shenzhen 2028.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Shenzhen 2028 ↓ -0.05 (-2.2%)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai ↑ +0.25 (+8.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.