ACV Assen vs Hoogeveen

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

ACV Assen

Hoogeveen

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.0% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 7.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 75.8% 1.25 DRAW 15.5% 6.10 AWAY 8.6% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Hoogeveen

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

ACV Assen Hoogeveen

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ACV Assen Hoogeveen

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.8

ACV Assen has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ACV Assen Hoogeveen

The combined recent performance profile favours ACV Assen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

ACV Assen ↓ -0.13 (-9.4%)

Hoogeveen ↑ +4.50 (+69.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.