Fernando de la Mora vs Deportivo Capiata

09 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Fernando de la Mora

Deportivo Capiata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 25.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.6% 2.21 DRAW 28.3% 3.25 AWAY 30.2% 3.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Fernando de la Mora clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.9% win probability, compared with 41.6% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Fernando de la Mora has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fernando de la Mora Deportivo Capiata

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Fernando de la Mora, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fernando de la Mora Deportivo Capiata

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Fernando de la Mora has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fernando de la Mora Deportivo Capiata

The combined recent performance profile favours Fernando de la Mora.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fernando de la Mora = (0.0%)

Deportivo Capiata = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.