Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima

17 Sep 2026 · 01:15

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Once Caldas

Deportes Tolima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.7% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 23.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.7% 2.29 DRAW 30.2% 3.17 AWAY 28.1% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Once Caldas clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.7% win probability, compared with 41.7% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Once Caldas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Once Caldas Deportes Tolima

Shots 20.5 · On target 8.0 Shots 13.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Once Caldas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Once Caldas Deportes Tolima

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Once Caldas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Once Caldas Deportes Tolima

The combined recent performance profile favours Once Caldas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Once Caldas ↑ +0.15 (+7.9%)

Deportes Tolima ↑ +0.14 (+3.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.