Tai Po U22 vs Lee Man FC U22

09 Sep 2026 · 12:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Tai Po U22

Lee Man FC U22

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.0% DRAW 17.9% AWAY 18.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.6% 1.53 DRAW 19.6% 4.75 AWAY 19.8% 4.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tai Po U22 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.0% win probability, compared with 60.6% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Tai Po U22 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tai Po U22 Lee Man FC U22

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Tai Po U22, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tai Po U22 Lee Man FC U22

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 7.5

Tai Po U22 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tai Po U22 Lee Man FC U22

The combined recent performance profile favours Tai Po U22.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Tai Po U22 = (0.0%)

Lee Man FC U22 ↑ +0.70 (+17.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.