Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Derry City (W)

Larne FC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 88.2% DRAW 7.9% AWAY 3.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 85.0% 1.17 DRAW 9.9% 10.00 AWAY 5.1% 19.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Derry City (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 88.2% win probability, compared with 85.0% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Derry City (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Derry City (W) Larne FC (W)

Shots 3.8 · On target 1.8 Shots 3.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Derry City (W) Larne FC (W)

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 21.0 · On target allowed 12.0

Derry City (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Derry City (W) Larne FC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Derry City (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Derry City (W) = (0.0%)

Larne FC (W) ↑ +9.50 (+95.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.