Getafe (W) vs Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

09 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Getafe (W)

Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 42.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% 2.78 DRAW 27.2% 3.45 AWAY 39.1% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pozuelo Alarcon (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.7% win probability, compared with 39.1% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Getafe (W) Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 17.3 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Pozuelo Alarcon (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Getafe (W) Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Getafe (W) Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Pozuelo Alarcon (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Getafe (W) ↑ +0.23 (+9.0%)

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) ↑ +0.03 (+1.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.