CD Vendaval vs AD Academia BP

10 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

CD Vendaval

AD Academia BP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.6% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 35.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% 2.60 DRAW 29.2% 3.30 AWAY 33.7% 2.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

AD Academia BP has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Vendaval AD Academia BP

Shots 1.3 · On target 0.0 Shots 3.8 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours AD Academia BP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Vendaval AD Academia BP

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.3

AD Academia BP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Vendaval AD Academia BP

The combined recent performance profile favours AD Academia BP.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CD Vendaval ↑ +0.35 (+15.6%)

AD Academia BP ↓ -0.02 (-0.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.