Little Oakley vs Gorleston

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Little Oakley

Gorleston

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 43.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% 2.96 DRAW 23.5% 3.88 AWAY 45.6% 2.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Little Oakley relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.7% win probability, compared with 30.9% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Little Oakley has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Little Oakley Gorleston

Shots 3.3 · On target 1.5 Shots 1.8 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Little Oakley, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Little Oakley Gorleston

Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 0.5 Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 1.8

Little Oakley has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Little Oakley Gorleston

The combined recent performance profile favours Little Oakley.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Little Oakley ↑ +0.56 (+23.1%)

Gorleston ↓ -0.38 (-15.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.