Celta Vigo (W) vs Real Aviles CF (W)

09 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Celta Vigo (W)

Real Aviles CF (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.5% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 20.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.6% 1.50 DRAW 20.2% 4.50 AWAY 19.1% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Celta Vigo (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Celta Vigo (W) Real Aviles CF (W)

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Celta Vigo (W) Real Aviles CF (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Real Aviles CF (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Celta Vigo (W) Real Aviles CF (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Celta Vigo (W) ↑ +0.10 (+7.1%)

Real Aviles CF (W) ↓ -0.50 (-9.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.